A subtle processing error, which had gone unnoticed for some time and involved housing units built in large developments during the second half of a calendar year, resulted in the discovery of about 27,000 county residents who had previously gone uncounted (This reported by the Las Vegas Review Journal today). All of that translated to an official July 1 population estimate for Clark County of 1,996,542. And from that figure has produced a host of guesses about whether -- and when -- the county's odometer rolled over to 2 million.
Now for the fun math - we're supposed to surpass 2.5 million residents by 2013. If we have 30,000 units listed in the MLS, and each home houses approximately 3.5 people, then we will absorb roughly 140,000 units in the next 6 years. Take away the 30,000 and we need 110,000 units. With builders pulling roughly 1500 permits a month (lowest in 6 years), we'll have an inventory shortfall in 2009 while builders create more standing inventory and existing resales get stripped off the market. I predict this to occur in 2009 exactly as it did in '03-'4. That's when my home goes back on the market.
A photo illustrating some of the $50+BILLION in construction underway in Las Vegas
We should expect an above-par market for 4 years following that as growth continues due to jobs with the $50 + BILLION being invested in the city from the Strip to Union Park over the next 5 years. Remember, nearly 39 million tourists visited Las Vegas last year, an increase of almost 350,000 over 2005. Analysts say that for every new resort hotel room built, the community gains roughly seven new jobs and 14 new residents.
